Did you catch the box score? Check it again. That's right, the Royals have won. No hives, no warning-track home runs, no bullpen meltdown. I almost forgot what it feels like to have won. I sort of expected after the last out for the umpire to call both teams back on the field and say that the Indians get an extra out. Nope, nothing, just a Royals win.
This was one of those losing streaks where even though the Royals lost 12 in a row, they didn't seem to earn it. There was the game where Delmon Young fell down and let the game-tying runs score. There was the game were Cliff Lee was knocked around, there was the game where the Royals scored eight runs, and the pitching collapsed, and then there was the 8-3 meltdown. That's four games right there. If the Royals win those four, then instead of them sitting at 22-34, they're at a much-easier-to-digest 26-30.
So what's next? Can this team use this win as a chance to catch fire, and reach my pre-season prediction of 81 wins? Or is this an aberration? An example of a broken clock is right twice daily?
Sunday becomes very important, if the Royals can get to Byrd (which they can), Bannister has a solid outing (he's due) and they win, then maybe they can right the ship. Maybe not so much that they win the division, but enough so that Hillman, Moore and Co. can spend their time fixing this team, instead of defending its ineptness.
If they lose...well there is always tomorrow, right?
Saturday, May 31, 2008
Tuesday, May 27, 2008
Same Old Feeling
You know, shame on us for thinking that fifteen years of crap was going to be magically reversed in less than a year. Shame on us for looking at the 2007 Rockies and assuming that we were this year's version of them. Shame on us for forgetting that these are the Royals, and nothing ever seems to come easily. Eight losses in a row, and we're now nine games under .500 and 7.5 games back. Shame on us for expecting the seas to part after nearly two decades of drowning.
Yes, at 21-30 the Royals have once again buried themselves in a hole that they look doubtful to climb out of. It started rather innocently, at 21-22 and heading into Boston, the Royals were looking to stay competitive with the Red Sox. A no-hitter, a drubbing and two close losses later, the Royals limped in Toronto losers of four straight, and promptly lost all four games. In eight losses, the Royals have scored 16 runs, and if you remove the 11-8 loss to Boston, the Royals have scored eight runs in seven losses.
That's not bad offense, that's Rookie Ball level offense performing in the majors. Top to bottom, the Royals have problems, and when the offense does put up some runs, the pitching craps out, as a suddenly shaky Meche and Bannister each sport 4.6+ ERA's, with Meche's hovering in the mid 5s. When Luke Hochaver is the second-best starter, there might be a slight problem. Thing is, the pitching is amazing compared to the epic failure that is the offense. Breaking it down requires lots of head trauma and Advil.
Starting with the obvious, Tony Pena Jr has been a one man rally-killer. He has a lower batting average (.162) than his weight (180lbs). His OPS is a shameful .388. Even on an offensive albatross team like the Royals, the second lowest OPS on the team with at least 100 official at bats is Ross Gload's at .572. If you want someone who has at least as many at bats as Pena does (142) look at David DeJesus (137) who has an OPS of .694 or .300+ better than Pena. That's obscene. The person ahead of Pena (Gload) is almost .200 ahead of Pena, and someone who has roughly the same amount of at-bats as Pena betters him by .300.
The Royals as a team are only hitting .255 with an OBP of .314 and an OPS of .671. They rank 9th, T12th, and 14th respectively in the AL in all those categories. Their highest ranking in any offensive category is doubles, where they are 6th in the AL with 89. Take all that in. The Royals are last in Runs, OPS, Home Runs, RBI, and Slugging. The only other team with that many last place categories is Cleveland in Total Bases, Triples, Batting Avg and Hits.
This team has one player with an OPS of .800+. That man is Miguel Olivo at .911. Second place? Alex Gordon at .799. It's no coincidence that Gordon is the only regular that I am not worried about. Unfortunatly, Olivo won't keep this production up, as his career OPS is .692, so we can expect that to drop. Another trouble spot is the fact that this team has hit 25 home runs. 25 as in one less home run than championships that the Yankees have. Minnesota is the second-worst team at 29 home runs.
Even worse is the fact that Olivo, Gordon and Jose Guillen have hit 17 home runs collectively, or 68% of the teams home runs. The most disturbing stat? Billy Butler and Mark Teahen have hit 3 home runs combined. As Rany Jazayerli states in his May 26th post; Matt Cain of the Giants has two home runs. The problem? Cain is a pitcher, while Butler and Teahen were both once praised for their power, and while I think Teahen's may be gone for good, I am hopeful that Butler can reach at least 15 for this season.
So what does all this mean? Without even touching the disappointments named Yabuta, Meche and Bannister, the Royals have enough problems on the offensive side of things to make just about anyone crazy. This team lacks any kind of power, doesn't get on base, loses too many runners on the basepaths when they do get on base, and doesn't score runs.
So what can they do?
--For starters, trade Grudz. I like the guy, I do, but I want Callaspo in there every day and 2nd base, with German getting a little more time between second and short.
--Speaking of short, mail Tony Pena Jr to Guam, and call up Aviles. While he is no savior, he is much closer than Moustakas at this point, and he certainly can't be worse than Pena.
--Nextoff, they need to either send Teahen down (if he has options left) or trade him. They wouldn't get much in return, but I would take an A-ball prospect or two for him at this point.
--With the gap in the outfield, Mitch Maier's phone better be ringing. This season is all but lost, why not see if he can perform? He is hitting .341/.376/.512 in Omaha, what do the Royals have to lose? He is already on the 40-man roster, so they don't have to waive anyone for him to get his feet wet.
--Avoid Barry Lamar Bonds like the plague. I'm going to go into this in depth at a later date, but let me say that signing him would be taking counterproductive to a whole new level.
--Make a run at a big time bat either at the deadline, or this winter. May I suggest Mr. Adam Dunn?
At this rate this team will go down as one of the worst offensive teams in Royals' history. Changes need to be made, but they need to be the right ones. GMDM has had his share of challenges before, but this is one that he can't mess up.
Yes, at 21-30 the Royals have once again buried themselves in a hole that they look doubtful to climb out of. It started rather innocently, at 21-22 and heading into Boston, the Royals were looking to stay competitive with the Red Sox. A no-hitter, a drubbing and two close losses later, the Royals limped in Toronto losers of four straight, and promptly lost all four games. In eight losses, the Royals have scored 16 runs, and if you remove the 11-8 loss to Boston, the Royals have scored eight runs in seven losses.
That's not bad offense, that's Rookie Ball level offense performing in the majors. Top to bottom, the Royals have problems, and when the offense does put up some runs, the pitching craps out, as a suddenly shaky Meche and Bannister each sport 4.6+ ERA's, with Meche's hovering in the mid 5s. When Luke Hochaver is the second-best starter, there might be a slight problem. Thing is, the pitching is amazing compared to the epic failure that is the offense. Breaking it down requires lots of head trauma and Advil.
Starting with the obvious, Tony Pena Jr has been a one man rally-killer. He has a lower batting average (.162) than his weight (180lbs). His OPS is a shameful .388. Even on an offensive albatross team like the Royals, the second lowest OPS on the team with at least 100 official at bats is Ross Gload's at .572. If you want someone who has at least as many at bats as Pena does (142) look at David DeJesus (137) who has an OPS of .694 or .300+ better than Pena. That's obscene. The person ahead of Pena (Gload) is almost .200 ahead of Pena, and someone who has roughly the same amount of at-bats as Pena betters him by .300.
The Royals as a team are only hitting .255 with an OBP of .314 and an OPS of .671. They rank 9th, T12th, and 14th respectively in the AL in all those categories. Their highest ranking in any offensive category is doubles, where they are 6th in the AL with 89. Take all that in. The Royals are last in Runs, OPS, Home Runs, RBI, and Slugging. The only other team with that many last place categories is Cleveland in Total Bases, Triples, Batting Avg and Hits.
This team has one player with an OPS of .800+. That man is Miguel Olivo at .911. Second place? Alex Gordon at .799. It's no coincidence that Gordon is the only regular that I am not worried about. Unfortunatly, Olivo won't keep this production up, as his career OPS is .692, so we can expect that to drop. Another trouble spot is the fact that this team has hit 25 home runs. 25 as in one less home run than championships that the Yankees have. Minnesota is the second-worst team at 29 home runs.
Even worse is the fact that Olivo, Gordon and Jose Guillen have hit 17 home runs collectively, or 68% of the teams home runs. The most disturbing stat? Billy Butler and Mark Teahen have hit 3 home runs combined. As Rany Jazayerli states in his May 26th post; Matt Cain of the Giants has two home runs. The problem? Cain is a pitcher, while Butler and Teahen were both once praised for their power, and while I think Teahen's may be gone for good, I am hopeful that Butler can reach at least 15 for this season.
So what does all this mean? Without even touching the disappointments named Yabuta, Meche and Bannister, the Royals have enough problems on the offensive side of things to make just about anyone crazy. This team lacks any kind of power, doesn't get on base, loses too many runners on the basepaths when they do get on base, and doesn't score runs.
So what can they do?
--For starters, trade Grudz. I like the guy, I do, but I want Callaspo in there every day and 2nd base, with German getting a little more time between second and short.
--Speaking of short, mail Tony Pena Jr to Guam, and call up Aviles. While he is no savior, he is much closer than Moustakas at this point, and he certainly can't be worse than Pena.
--Nextoff, they need to either send Teahen down (if he has options left) or trade him. They wouldn't get much in return, but I would take an A-ball prospect or two for him at this point.
--With the gap in the outfield, Mitch Maier's phone better be ringing. This season is all but lost, why not see if he can perform? He is hitting .341/.376/.512 in Omaha, what do the Royals have to lose? He is already on the 40-man roster, so they don't have to waive anyone for him to get his feet wet.
--Avoid Barry Lamar Bonds like the plague. I'm going to go into this in depth at a later date, but let me say that signing him would be taking counterproductive to a whole new level.
--Make a run at a big time bat either at the deadline, or this winter. May I suggest Mr. Adam Dunn?
At this rate this team will go down as one of the worst offensive teams in Royals' history. Changes need to be made, but they need to be the right ones. GMDM has had his share of challenges before, but this is one that he can't mess up.
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